Friday, July 26, 2013

The Way Forward For US Banks And The US Financial Sector






The XLF is the largest US investment bank ETF.  It's surprising that Berkshire Hathaway (BRK) is its largest holding along with WFC, JMP, C and BAC.  BRK and WFC have been the best performing in the sector by far (BRK owns a large percentage of WFC).

From a technical perspective, the easy money has been made as it has run into significant overhead resistance that was established in the decade prior to the financial crisis.  I think XLF is an excellent long term hold, however, choppy and sideways trading is likely the way forward.

There is still opportunity for upside in more speculative financial issues such as RF, KEY, STI and AIG.  Their long term charts illustrate the tremendous destructive force of the financial crisis, erasing in some cases equity built up over decades.  I generally use call options with issues as speculative as these.

The US financial sector now sits where the DOW did in the 1930s after the 1929 crash.  The waters may still be somewhat rough, but I think it's mostly upside from here.