Wednesday, August 25, 2010

Gold




There is no question that both of these charts are still in long term uptrends. Gold bullion alone (GLD) has significantly outperformed the iShares Gold ETF (XGD), which consists of gold stocks, since the 2008 market crash.

The reason for this may be two fold. Fear of owning equities in general is high. Perhaps some investors are afraid of owning stocks at all, even if they are gold stocks. Second, equities tend to outperform the underlying related commodity in the early phase of a trend whereas the commodity outperforms the related equities in the late phase of a trend. This was observed during the climb in oil related stocks relative to the rise then subsequent fall in the price of oil.

It is important to remember that gold doesn't "do" anything. It doesn't create a product, deliver a service, employ people, expand it's operations, diversify, innovate, beat earnings expectations, participate in merger activity, pay a dividend, increase value for its shareholders, contribute to an economy or change the way people and societies live. These are things that companies do. Gold is simply a yellow metal.

Someday, the price of gold will fall. I think we may be in the 6th or 7th inning for the rise of gold.