Friday, August 27, 2010

Treasuries and Bonds not so safe




Volume is up huge and climbing on the major US indicies today after the Bernake comments and the quarterly GDP report.

I'm sure the bears will suggest this is simply short covering and that we should expect new lows. I'm not so sure. Bonds prices and treasury yields are down on huge volume today. We may be observing the formation of a long term double bottom in treasury yields which could hold for years. The iShares 20-year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) is essentially the inverse of the 10-year treasury yield chart. Long term bond prices attempting to retest of their multiyear highs in classic long term double top formation.
The above charts illustrates how fear drives cash to safety in panic driven fashion. When fear subsides and normalcy returns, money flows out of these "safe" investments in an equally rapid nature.