I must admit that I'm worried about the Canadian banks. Not withstanding all of the risks surrounding the Canadian housing bubble, they're overvalued when compared to their US and especially European counterparts by at least 50%. P/E and P/B ratios suggest this nearly across the board. The risks associated with the Canadian real estate market is the single reason why I have no Canadian assets other than my primary residence. The charts of the Canadian banks are difficult to interpret. RY & TD are of course the strongest and have held up best over the past 2 years. But this could be a "flight to supposed safety" as Canadian investors move further into the "safer" banks. The downtrend the bank charts show doesn't look as severe as the early downtrend prior to the financial crisis but they do illustrate concern among investors. They continue to post lower lows at a slow grinding pace - 2 years and counting. Unfortunately, when it comes to downtrends, the most pain is usually felt at the end. I'm sitting this one out.
Showing posts with label housing. Show all posts
Showing posts with label housing. Show all posts
Tuesday, April 12, 2016
Sunday, August 22, 2010
Canadian Real Estate Prices

The above chart nicely illustrates the fact that Canadian real estate prices have appreciated significantly for 10 straight years, correcting briefly during the great recession. As this graph climbs higher, owning a new home becomes increasingly expensive relative to renting. Notice that in 1989, real estate prices peaked and entered a 10 year period of price consolidation during the tech boom of the 1990s. The smart money left the real estate market and went into the stock market -- technology stocks in particular. The smart money left the US real estate market in 2008. The price-to-rent index in Canada can't climb indefinitely. Last summer appears to be a potential top in Canadian real-estate as prices are down markedly this summer in metropolitan areas such as the GTA , Vancouver and Montreal. It is possible that history will simply repeat itself and we may experience a prolonged period of stagnation as the speculators become frustrated with the Canadian housing market.
The more important question is where will the smart money head next?
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