I must admit that I'm worried about the Canadian banks. Not withstanding all of the risks surrounding the Canadian housing bubble, they're overvalued when compared to their US and especially European counterparts by at least 50%. P/E and P/B ratios suggest this nearly across the board. The risks associated with the Canadian real estate market is the single reason why I have no Canadian assets other than my primary residence. The charts of the Canadian banks are difficult to interpret. RY & TD are of course the strongest and have held up best over the past 2 years. But this could be a "flight to supposed safety" as Canadian investors move further into the "safer" banks. The downtrend the bank charts show doesn't look as severe as the early downtrend prior to the financial crisis but they do illustrate concern among investors. They continue to post lower lows at a slow grinding pace - 2 years and counting. Unfortunately, when it comes to downtrends, the most pain is usually felt at the end. I'm sitting this one out.
Showing posts with label banks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label banks. Show all posts
Tuesday, April 12, 2016
Tuesday, November 4, 2014
Canadian Banks No Longer Leading US Banks. Trouble Ahead For The Canadian Economy?
The Canadian banks (XFN) have outperformed their US counterparts (XLF) since 2009. They have been placed on a global pedestal due to their reluctance to participate in the subprime mortgage debt and collateralized debt obligations that precipitated the Great Recession. Their balance sheets remained extremely healthy and their stock prices reflected this to this day. But that was then...
Two of the 4 wheels have blown on the car that is the Canadian economy. Precious metals and material stocks are down some 70% since 2011. Now stocks of energy producing companies are free falling in tandem with the price of oil which seems to be in global abundance despite the fact that the opposite view held the public consensus only 6 years ago. Don't get me started on the Canadian housing market.
Banks and financial sectors reflect the overall health of a country's economy. Their relative performance is predictive of the relative performance of a given country's economy. The chart above would suggest that growth in the US economy will continue to outpace that of the Canadian economy. If the Canadian bank index is unable to post new 52-week highs and/or trends lower trouble is ahead.
Labels:
banks,
Canadian,
divergence,
economy,
financials,
great recession,
recession,
US financials,
xfn,
xlf
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