Tuesday, April 12, 2016

What are the stock charts of Canadian banks saying?

I must admit that I'm worried about the Canadian banks.  Not withstanding all of the risks surrounding the Canadian housing bubble, they're overvalued when compared to their US and especially European counterparts by at least 50%.  P/E and P/B ratios suggest this nearly across the board.  The risks associated with the Canadian real estate market is the single reason why I have no Canadian assets other than my primary residence.  The charts of the Canadian banks are difficult to interpret.  RY & TD are of course the strongest and have held up best over the past 2 years.  But this could be a "flight to supposed safety" as Canadian investors move further into the "safer" banks.  The downtrend the bank charts show doesn't look as severe as the early downtrend prior to the financial crisis but they do illustrate concern among investors.  They continue to post lower lows at a slow grinding pace - 2 years and counting.  Unfortunately, when it comes to downtrends, the most pain is usually felt at the end.  I'm sitting this one out.