Major European Indices Near End Of Secular Bear Market

As the three above charts show, returns on the big 3 European ETFs have been essentially zero for the past 15 years.  This is typical of a secular bear market, zero return with extreme volatility throughout.  I think the picture going forward will be quite different.

Germany (EWG) is pushing up on resistance established at the 2000 peak, the breakdown period in 2007-08 which lead to the global financial crisis and the 2011 peak established prior to the European Debt Crisis.  We could see some more sideways movement before finally moving higher but I think the lows are in.

France (EWQ) is sitting on major support established in 1998-99, 2006 and more recently in 2011.  The United Kingdom (EWU) has a similar chart.  Both are sitting on key Fibonacci retracement lines.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fibonacci_retracement

Facebook Up 17% After Hours, LinkedIn Trend Is Up, FDN Is The Best Way To Play Them Both

Facebook finally posted earnings results that beat estimates and will be rewarded by the market tomorrow.  However, its social networking cousin, LinkedIn, seems to be the better play.

Despite the fact LinkedIn is a fraction of Facebook's size,  it has far more predictable earnings and revenue growth data and is likely to continue its smooth growth in the future as it continues to implement more revenue generating service offerings to its members.

It is extremely hard to determine the likelihood of success of a given social network or high P/E multiple internet company.  FDN is an ETF that tracks the Dow Jones Internet Composite Index. Although it has a more modest MER of 0.60%, it is worth every penny over the long term.

Is Apple Preparing For Another Leg Up?

Apple is up in the premarket today after reporting earnings that we're not quite as bad as analysts had suggested after many downward revisions.  The market has responded modestly and it should open up ~5% today.  Whether or not it holds is another story and is largely dependent on the broad market.  Regardless, the market has more or less written Apple off completely.  With almost $400B in market cap, a P/E of 10 and a dividend yield of 2.8%, the market is pricing it like a utility company not a tech company.  Over the past several months, it has formed a base pattern similar to that in 2009.  Maybe I'm just seeing things...

Brazil China And Emerging Markets Hold Major Support

China (FXI), Brazil (EWZ) and the entire Emerging Market MSCI Index (EEM) have bounced off of major technical support levels that reach back to 2006.  This is coinciding with the rebound in commodity stocks.  They should all move higher from here.

Cisco Moving Higher For The Long Term

CSCO broke out of a period of price consolidation in late 2012.  Expect resistance at ~$30.

QQQ Continues To Lag S&P 500. PerfChart QQQ SPY EEM XLF IWM MDY FDN IBB XIU

Mega cap tech stocks (QQQ) have been lagging the S&P 500 for most of the year, largely due to the poor performance of a few big names (i.e. AAPL, MSFT, INTC).  Biotechnology (IBB), on the other hand, is way out front.

Microsoft Is A Screaming Buy

The market has unfairly punished Microsoft.  The options market is currently undervaluing it to a ridiculous degree.  April 2014 calls offer tremendous value.  I'll be buying them.  It is sitting on 10+ year support.