Nasdaq 10000 by the end of 2020? 2.618 Fibonacci extension target is ~13000

It has been a while folks.  Anyway here goes:

I think the Nasdaq is going to leave the 1.618 extension of its 2000 high behind and head to the next extension level (2.618).  Rounding the 2000 high to 5000 and the 1.618 extension to ~8100 (which we have been trading around since Feb 2018) the 2.618 extension would bring us to approximately 13000.

It took the Nasdaq 18 years to reach the 1.618 extension level.

The 2000 - 2015 Nasdaq base is gigantic.  It's possible that the breakout has just begun.

Akamai breaks out. Tech leadership expands.

What began as market leadership in biotechnology stocks quickly spread to internet stocks and is now perpetuating in the NASDAQ 100 mega cap stocks.  We are entering a period of broad based tech market leadership which may continue for the duration of this bull market that began in 2009.  It is important to note that both the biotechnology and the internet index has doubled in a 2 year time frame.

NASDAQ 100 Big Cap Tech To Outperform

Mega cap tech stocks have lagged the broad NASDAQ and the S&P 500 for many months.  Recent market action suggests that this could be changing.  Apple makes up 12% of the NASDAQ 100 Index alone.  A new uptrend for the world's largest technology company by market cap would pull the NASDAQ 100 Index into the lead. It's also worth noting that other tech giants like MSFT, CSCO, INTC, AMZN and GOOG also have bullish charts.  Follow the QQQ.

Long Term NASDAQ Outperformance Began In The Late 1970s

There are many market similarities between present day and the late 1970s.  The late 70s early 80s saw the conclusion of a long secular bull market in commodities, similar to the late stage bull market in commodities we are currently experiencing.  One of the most overlooked comparisons between now and the 70s market is the relative outperformance of the NASDAQ.  Prior to the emergence of the broad secular bull market in the early 1980s, the NASDAQ was well on its way as early as 1978.  We are seeing a similar trend develop in the market today, however, the outperformance of the NASDAQ began immediately off of the market bottom in 2009.

I'm long the NASDAQ 100 Index through the QQQ.  It is my favourite "buy it and forget about it" holding.  I've been adding to it since 2006.

S&P 400 Mid Cap Index Is The Intermediate Term Winner

No one would have guessed in 2009 that the S&P 400 Mid Cap Index would lead as it has post financial crisis. The charts speak for themselves.  Visit www.chartoftheday.com for more great charts.

Facebook Explodes Higher On Very Heavy Volume

Facebook has exploded, up almost 28% today on VERY heavy volume.  There are days when the entire Toronto Stock Exchange trades less than half of the volume Facebook has traded today (and the day is not over).  LinkedIn is up strongly in sympathy.  QQQ and especially FDN are up as a result.(Disclaimer:  I own FDN and QQQ)

QQQ Continues To Lag S&P 500. PerfChart QQQ SPY EEM XLF IWM MDY FDN IBB XIU

Mega cap tech stocks (QQQ) have been lagging the S&P 500 for most of the year, largely due to the poor performance of a few big names (i.e. AAPL, MSFT, INTC).  Biotechnology (IBB), on the other hand, is way out front.

Biotechnology Mega Cap Stocks 5 Year Chart Comparison

Biotechnology is leading the way forward for the NASDAQ.  AMGN, CELG and GILD are the biotech mega cap leaders.

Biotech Shows Strength While Mega Cap Tech Gets Hit

This is unusual.  Mega caps hit will selling due to earnings misses, yet biotech shows strength.  IBB will lead us out of darkness...

Shawn