Nasdaq 10000 by the end of 2020? 2.618 Fibonacci extension target is ~13000

It has been a while folks.  Anyway here goes:

I think the Nasdaq is going to leave the 1.618 extension of its 2000 high behind and head to the next extension level (2.618).  Rounding the 2000 high to 5000 and the 1.618 extension to ~8100 (which we have been trading around since Feb 2018) the 2.618 extension would bring us to approximately 13000.

It took the Nasdaq 18 years to reach the 1.618 extension level.

The 2000 - 2015 Nasdaq base is gigantic.  It's possible that the breakout has just begun.

Nasdaq 2017 = Dow Jones Industrial Average 1950s? Ultra bull market ahead?

Looking back it wasn't surprising that the US stock market would enter a correction at the Nasdaq 5000 range.  This was the previous year 2000 top (~5200).  Breaking through this level required more conviction on behalf of the market as it signified the Nasdaq was finally leaving the dot.com bubble top behind it.  Market watchers have been focusing on Dow 20000 and S&P500 2400 but I think the Nasdaq is the index to watch.

After the 1929 top, the Dow finally reached new ATHs in the early 1950s AFTER which a 18 year bull market followed until concluding in 1968.  The post 2000 Nasdaq has a very similar chart to the post 1929 Dow.  Some differences being that consolidation in the Nasdaq post 2000 was more constructive and shorter in duration than Dow consolidation during the Great Depression.  From absolute top to bottom the Nasdaq corrected less than the Dow and reached new ATHs sooner.  One can suggest that the modern Nasdaq has shown more resilience than the 1930s Dow.  If the Nasdaq follows a similar pattern of Dow 1950 we can expect a long and powerful bull market ahead.

Will The Robo-Advisors Take Your Job? (Diamandis, Edelman) - Exponential...

Microsoft Is Taking Off Like It Did In The Early 90s

Microsoft (MSFT) recently passed $400B in market cap.  Just by looking at the above chart, it appears to be in a long term uptrend similar to that of the early 1990s.

Biotechnology & Health Care Stocks & ETFs Continue To Lead The Stock Market Higher

Biotechnology and health care stocks and ETFs continue to lead the market.  This is becoming a dominant theme within the broad technology sector.  It is likely that health care and biotechnology stocks continue to grow in relative market cap weight in the major US indices (i.e. NASDAQ 100 & S&P 500).

NASDAQ 100 Big Cap Tech To Outperform

Mega cap tech stocks have lagged the broad NASDAQ and the S&P 500 for many months.  Recent market action suggests that this could be changing.  Apple makes up 12% of the NASDAQ 100 Index alone.  A new uptrend for the world's largest technology company by market cap would pull the NASDAQ 100 Index into the lead. It's also worth noting that other tech giants like MSFT, CSCO, INTC, AMZN and GOOG also have bullish charts.  Follow the QQQ.

NASDAQ Outperforms The DJIA And S&P 500 2:1 Over The Long Term

Even after taking into account the dot-com bubble which reduced the NASDAQ by 78% from top to bottom, the NASDAQ still manages to outperform the DOW and S&P 500 by 2:1 over the long term. This chart says it all.

Solar Energy

"If we could harness only 0.03% of the sun's light, we would have more than enough energy to power the entire planet"

This is a remarkable statement made by more than one scientist on the solar energy debate. Although solar energy is far more expensive to produce than other sources currently, we could be close to a tipping point where it becomes much more competitive and efficient.

This ETF is obviously not pricing in a solar energy revolution. In fact, solar energy stocks were crushed along with all energy stocks during the 2008 market crash. Currently, solar ETFs seem to be trading in a similar fashion to other energy related ETFs. The Market Vectors Solar ETF (KWT) is a relatively new ETF with little price history. Its major holdings are listed below.

TOP 10 HOLDINGS (67.25% OF TOTAL ASSETS)

Company
Symbol
% Assets
Canadian Solar Inc. CSIQ 4.18
First Solar, Inc. FSLR 9.64
MEMC Electronic Materials, Inc. WFR 10.16
Q-CELLS QCE.BE 4.48
RENEWABLE ENERGY REC.OL 11.45
SOLARWORLD SWV.BE 4.14
SunPower Corporation SPWRA 4.45
Suntech Power Holdings Co., LTD STP 9.47
Trina Solar Limited Sponsored A TSL 4.82
Yingli Green Energy Holding Com YGE 4.46

If solar energy is to become the dominant energy source in the not-so-distant future, solar energy related stocks should start to be priced less like energy stocks and more like technology stocks. I anticipate that traditional energy stocks will lag the market for some time. Solar energy companies should eventually prove to be market leaders sometime in the future.