Nasdaq 2017 = Dow Jones Industrial Average 1950s? Ultra bull market ahead?

Looking back it wasn't surprising that the US stock market would enter a correction at the Nasdaq 5000 range.  This was the previous year 2000 top (~5200).  Breaking through this level required more conviction on behalf of the market as it signified the Nasdaq was finally leaving the dot.com bubble top behind it.  Market watchers have been focusing on Dow 20000 and S&P500 2400 but I think the Nasdaq is the index to watch.

After the 1929 top, the Dow finally reached new ATHs in the early 1950s AFTER which a 18 year bull market followed until concluding in 1968.  The post 2000 Nasdaq has a very similar chart to the post 1929 Dow.  Some differences being that consolidation in the Nasdaq post 2000 was more constructive and shorter in duration than Dow consolidation during the Great Depression.  From absolute top to bottom the Nasdaq corrected less than the Dow and reached new ATHs sooner.  One can suggest that the modern Nasdaq has shown more resilience than the 1930s Dow.  If the Nasdaq follows a similar pattern of Dow 1950 we can expect a long and powerful bull market ahead.

Where does the Canadian dollar go from here?

The $CAD has been rallying hard off the bottom after collapsing to 68 cents US in late Jan.  As the long term chart shows, the $CAD has crashed faster and fallen further than almost anyone would have predicted.  After such a crash, dead cat bounces and the development of subsequent trading ranges are almost inevitable (it's not going to zero nor it is it going to rebound significantly anytime soon).  Fundamentals do not support a strong Canadian dollar nor a strong oil price on which it is heavily dependent.  If history is any guide, both oil and the $CAD will remain depressed for a long time.  Technically speaking, the $CAD is hitting solid overhead resistance around 78 cents.  I suspect an intermediate term trading range develops between 72 and 78 cents for the next several months.

Market In Correction?

According to Investors Business Daily, the market has experienced a high enough number of distrubution days relative to accumulation days to make the liklihood of a correction in the US indicies likely. Depending on how today plays out, they may issue a "market in correction" verdict in their Big Picture column later today.

They may be correct. We could experience another correction. However, the intensity of selling this time is reminding me of the May 2006 correction rather than the 2008 crash. I think the downside this time is limited given where we stand currently. It will be difficult for the DOW and S&P 500 to spend a significant amount of time below their important respective psychological 10 000 and 1000 point levels. Any significant move below these levels, should bring in institutional value investors in addition to technical support buyers.