Looking back it wasn't surprising that the US stock market would enter a correction at the Nasdaq 5000 range. This was the previous year 2000 top (~5200). Breaking through this level required more conviction on behalf of the market as it signified the Nasdaq was finally leaving the dot.com bubble top behind it. Market watchers have been focusing on Dow 20000 and S&P500 2400 but I think the Nasdaq is the index to watch.
After the 1929 top, the Dow finally reached new ATHs in the early 1950s AFTER which a 18 year bull market followed until concluding in 1968. The post 2000 Nasdaq has a very similar chart to the post 1929 Dow. Some differences being that consolidation in the Nasdaq post 2000 was more constructive and shorter in duration than Dow consolidation during the Great Depression. From absolute top to bottom the Nasdaq corrected less than the Dow and reached new ATHs sooner. One can suggest that the modern Nasdaq has shown more resilience than the 1930s Dow. If the Nasdaq follows a similar pattern of Dow 1950 we can expect a long and powerful bull market ahead.
Showing posts with label breakout. Show all posts
Showing posts with label breakout. Show all posts
Sunday, May 21, 2017
Thursday, August 8, 2013
Microsoft Is The Most Underrated Tech Company
While analysts like to continually make reference to Apple's large $30B cash reserve, they seem to overlook the fact that Microsoft has more than double that. With $76B in cash and growing, Microsoft has more in cash than the total market cap of most companies in the NASDAQ 100 Index. It has also increased its revenue and profit year-over-year with little upside response in its stock price. I think Microsoft will surprise the market with a significant upside breakout sooner than later. Like many first dot.com generation tech companies, its stock price has gone nowhere for >10 years. It's a bargain at this price.
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